MODELING AND MANAGEMENT OF FOREST FIRES IN THE TERRITORY OF KhMAO – UGRA

Abstract

The authors analyze modern approaches to the development of a decision support system for forest firefighting in the territory of KhMAO – Ugra. This system will allow modeling not only the process of fires behavior but also to predict the probability of their occurrence, as well as to assess the material, environmental and social-organizational consequences of potential fires. It is established that in general a forest fire extinguishing process control can be considered as management of complex organizational system which consists of collecting information, making a decision, and also an implementation of this decision. These steps are repeated in a cycle, and each next step evaluates the quality of the management process in the previous step.